Japan has called on China to immediately revoke its new export controls on products that could have military applications, including crucial rare earth minerals, escalating tensions between the two countries.
China’s commerce ministry announced the move yesterday, saying it has “decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan,” effective immediately. The statement did not list specific products, leaving Tokyo concerned that access to vital rare earths—essential for technologies ranging from smartphones to fighter jets—could be restricted.
The latest measures come amid heightened diplomatic friction after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that Japan might respond militarily if Taiwan were attacked. Beijing views the self-governed island as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force, while also criticizing Japan’s expanding military capabilities.
Hours after the announcement, Masaaki Kanai, secretary-general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau at Japan’s Foreign Ministry, lodged a formal protest with Shi Yong, deputy chief of mission at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo. Kanai described China’s move as “deeply regrettable, absolutely unacceptable, and significantly deviating from international norms.”
Japan imports over 70 percent of its rare earths from China, despite Tokyo’s long-term efforts to diversify supply sources following a similar export dispute in 2010. Analysts suggest the vague wording of China’s statement may be a strategic nudge to encourage Japan to adopt a more conciliatory approach.
Global risk consultancy Teneo noted that the new controls could range from symbolic gestures to serious disruptions. “The brief statement creates immediate pressure on Japan while leaving room for broader action in the future,” the consultancy said.
Economists warn that the potential impact on Japan’s economy could be severe. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, estimated that even a three-month ban on rare earth exports could cost Japan $4.2 billion and lower its GDP by 0.11 percent. Certain rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium used in electric vehicle motors, remain almost entirely dependent on China.
While Japan’s top government spokesman, Minoru Kihara, refrained from commenting on the economic implications, citing the lack of clarity in China’s statement, the situation underscores the delicate balance Tokyo faces in navigating trade dependencies amid geopolitical tension.
At its core, this is not just about minerals or exports—it’s about the human and economic interconnections that link countries, companies, and everyday lives. For Japan, the stakes are high: from tech manufacturers to electric vehicle makers, the ripple effects could touch every household and industry reliant on these critical resources.
