Jammu and Kashmir is heading toward a dramatic surge in electricity demand—nearly a 50 percent rise over the next decade—while its power sector continues to operate on ageing, decades-old infrastructure.
According to newly accessed official documents, the Union Territory is projected to witness a 49.42 percent increase in power demand by 2034–35, signaling one of the steepest climbs in recent years.
Officials clarified that peak power demand is expected to rise even faster than average consumption, with annual growth touching nearly 6 percent between 2025–26 and 2034–35. This sustained surge poses a critical challenge for a region already grappling with transmission losses, outdated grids, and seasonal shortages.
Year-wise Power Demand Growth Forecast
The projection outlines a fluctuating but consistently upward trend over the next decade:
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2025–26: 5 percent increase
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2026–27: 4 percent increase
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2027–28: 4 percent increase
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2028–29: 3 percent increase
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2029–30: 5 percent increase
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2030–31: 4 percent increase
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2031–32: 4 percent increase
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2032–33: 3 percent increase
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2033–34: 5 percent increase
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2034–35: 4 percent increase
Authorities noted that these projections are higher than the estimates made in the 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) of India, suggesting that J&K’s power needs are expanding faster than national assessments anticipated.
The demand forecast for 2034–35 uses J&K’s 2022–23 demand profile as the baseline, while solar generation and capacity utilization factors are based on actual data supplied by the UT.
Major Capacity Additions Planned
To meet the accelerating demand, Jammu and Kashmir has proposed significant energy expansion by 2030, including:
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392 MW of coal-based power under the Shakti Scheme
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620 MW of solar capacity
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1206 MW of hydroelectric capacity
Experts warn that without rapid modernization of the grid, transmission upgrades, and renewable integration, the region may struggle to cope with peak loads—especially during harsh winters and extreme summers when shortages historically worsen.
